Risk Factors for Local Relapse and Inferior Disease-free Survival After Breast-conserving Management of Breast Cancer: Recursive Partitioning Analysis of 2161 Patients.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to analyze risk factors for ipsilateral in-breast relapse and inferior disease-free survival (DFS) after standard adjuvant whole-breast radiotherapy (± boost and systemic treatment) as part of a multimodal breast-conserving approach.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: Decision trees were built through recursive partitioning analysis (RPA). The median follow-up for all 2161 patients was 114 months (9.5 years).

RESULTS: Local relapse in the treated breast was uncommon (actuarial rates after 5 and 10 years were 2.7% and 5.8%, respectively). In RPA, the first split was related to age (52 years), with younger patients having a significantly higher risk of local relapse. The younger patients were stratified further by lymph node ratio (LNR). In patients older than 52 years, lack of endocrine treatment was associated with significantly higher risk. DFS was 80.7% at 10 years. The first split was caused by LNR, and the group with unfavorable LNR (> 0.20) could not be stratified further. Ten-year DFS in this group was as low as 50.6%. Patients with favorable LNR (0-0.20) could be stratified by additional risk factors, in particular primary tumor size.

CONCLUSION: RPA is a suitable method to assign patients with early stage breast cancer to different risk groups, both regarding local relapse and DFS. Although age was a major risk factor for local relapse after breast-conserving management, LNR was associated with both endpoints. The systemic treatment approaches used in this study failed to provide satisfactory DFS in patients with LNR > 0.20 and 2 other subgroups.