Hemoglobin glycation index predicts cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A 10-year longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous studies have suggested that the hemoglobin glycation index (HGI) can be used as a predictor of diabetes-related complications. We examined the prognostic significance of a high HGI for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in an ongoing hospital-based cohort.

METHODS: From March 2003 to December 2004, 1302 consecutive patients with type 2 diabetes and without a prior history of CVD were enrolled. CVD was defined as the occurrence of coronary artery disease or ischemic stroke. The HGI was calculated as the measured glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) minus predicted HbA1c. Predicted HbA1c were calculated for 1302 participants by inserting fasting blood glucose (FBG) into the equation, Predicted HbA1c level = 0.02106 × FBG [mg/dL] + 4.973. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify the associations between the HGI and CVD after adjusting for confounding variables.

RESULTS: During 11.1 years of follow-up, 225 participants (17.2%) were newly diagnosed with CVD. The baseline HGI was significantly higher in subjects with incident CVD than in those without CVD, although the baseline FBG levels did not differ according to the occurrence of CVD. Compared with patients without CVD, those with CVD were older, had a longer duration of diabetes and hypertension, and used more insulin at baseline. A Cox hazard regression analysis revealed that the development of CVD was significantly associated with baseline HGI (hazard ratio [HR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-2.87; p < 0.001, comparing the highest and lowest quartiles of HGI). This relationship was unchanged after additional adjustment for baseline HbA1c level (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.08-2.81). The HRs of HbA1c in relation to outcomes were similar to or lower than those seen for HGI. After adjustment for HGI, the effect of the highest HbA1c on incident CVD disappeared.

CONCLUSIONS: High HGI was independently associated with incident CVD in patients with type 2 diabetes. Patients with high HGI at baseline had a higher inherent risk for CVD.