Prior caesarean section and likelihood of vaginal birth, 2012-2016, China.

Objective: To examine the trends and safety of vaginal birth after caesarean section around the period of the one-child policy relaxation in China.

Methods: We used data from China's National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System between 2012 and 2016. To examine trends in vaginal birth after caesarean section, we used Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator. We also assessed the association between vaginal birth after caesarean section and maternal and perinatal outcomes.

Findings: We analysed 871 636 deliveries by women with a previous caesarean section. Both in 2012 and 2016, the rate of vaginal birth after caesarean section was 9.8%. After adjusting for institutional, sociodemographic and obstetric characteristics, the rate increased by 14% between 2012 and 2016 (adjusted relative risk, aRR: 1.14; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.07-1.21). Compared to women with a repeat caesarean section, women with a vaginal birth after caesarean section experienced lower incidence of uterine rupture (aRR: 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16-0.42), blood transfusion (aRR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.53-0.87) and admission to the intensive care unit (aRR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.25-0.52), but higher incidence of intrapartum stillbirths, (aRR: 7.20, 95% CI: 6.09-8.51), newborns with a 5-minute Apgar score less than 7 (aRR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.54-1.99) and neonatal death before discharge (aRR: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.61-2.24).

Conclusion: Promotion of vaginal birth after caesarean section could increase the rate even further in China. To ensure the safety of mothers and their newborns, national policies and guidelines on vaginal birth after caesarean section are needed.