The Link Between Per Capita Alcohol Consumption and Alcohol-Related Harm in Sweden, 1987-2015.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have suggested a weakening of the relationship between population drinking and harm in Sweden. The aim of the present article was to estimate this association on the basis of more recent Swedish time-series data.

METHOD: The Swedish state monopoly's (Systembolaget) alcohol sales were used as a proxy for population drinking, expressed in liters 100% alcohol per capita ages 15 and older. As indicators of harm we used mortality (cirrhosis mortality, accidents, and suicide), police-reported assaults, and drink driving. Quarterly data on mortality and alcohol consumption spanned the period 1987Q1-2015Q1, and the data on police-reported offenses covered the period 1995Q1-2015Q1. Data were analyzed by applying the technique of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling.

RESULTS: We found a positive and statistically significant association between population drinking and all harm indicators. A 1 L increase in per capita consumption was associated with a 19% increase in cirrhosis mortality and a 17% increase in drink driving. The effects on the other harm rates were estimated to be between 11% and 13%. These estimates are in line with earlier findings except the estimate for cirrhosis, which was weaker and now similar to findings for other countries.

CONCLUSIONS: The results provide continuing support for a strong relationship between population drinking and alcohol-related harm in Sweden. Policy measures aimed at lowering the level of drinking gained support from these results.