Potential medium-term impacts of climate change on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico: A qualitative framework for management and conservation.

A systematic review of scientific papers on the potential impacts of climate-driven environmental changes on tuna and billfish in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) was conducted to identify the climate-driven pressures and their associated potential impacts on the reproductive success and survival of tuna and billfish, and which of those impacts may have more relevance for their management and conservation in the GOM by 2050. An Impact Screening Analysis (ISA) was developed to evaluate the potential climate impacts discovered in the literature synthesis by assessing each impact against four criteria, and assigning it a ranking based on likelihood of occurrence (High, Medium, or Low). Results show three types of climate-driven pressures within the High ranking: increased water temperature; changes in ocean circulation and eddy kinetic energy; and changes in storm and wind patterns. Our findings provide valuable information to advance our understanding of key climate-driven physico-chemical processes that can impact the biology of tuna and billfish in the GOM, and enhance conservation and management of these species.