Vitamin D status and epigenetic-based mortality risk score: strong independent and joint prediction of all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort study.

Background: Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency have been established to be strongly associated with increased overall mortality and deaths from specific aging-related diseases. Recently, an epigenetic "mortality risk score" (MS) based on whole blood DNA methylation at the 10 most prominent mortality-related cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites has also been found to be highly related to all-cause mortality. This study aimed to explore whether vitamin D status, defined by serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, is associated with the MS and to what extent both indicators are individually and jointly capable of predicting all-cause mortality in a general population sample of older adults.

Results: The MS was derived from the blood DNA methylation profiles measured by Illumina Human Methylation 450K Beadchip, and serum 25(OH)D concentration was measured among 1467 participants aged 50-75 of the German ESTHER cohort study. There was no association between vitamin D status and the MS at baseline, but both metrics were prominently and independently associated with all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 15.2 years. The combination of both indicators showed the potential to be a particularly strong prognostic index for all-cause mortality. Participants with vitamin D deficiency (< 30 nmol/L) and high MS (> 5 CpG sites with aberrant methylation) had almost sixfold mortality (hazard ratio 5.79, 95% CI 3.06-10.94) compared with participants with sufficient vitamin D (≥ 50 nmol/L) and a low MS (0-1 CpG site with aberrant methylation).

Conclusions: This study suggests that vitamin D and the MS are strong independent predictors of all-cause mortality in older adults.