Risk factors for developing diabetes after 3 years among community-dwelling elderly with impaired fasting glucose.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to examine the risk factors for developing diabetes after 3 years in an elderly Chinese suburban population with impaired fasting glucose (IFG).

METHODS: The study population comprised residents of the Hangu area of Tianjin, China, with IFG, aged ≥60 years, who joined the national free physical examination program (n = 328; mean [±SD] age 68.0 ±6.1 years; 48.2% men). Diabetes was defined by self-report of a physician's diagnosis or fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L; IFG was defined as FPG ≥5.6 and < 7.0 mmol/L. Risk factors of incident diabetes at the 3-year follow-up were analyzed individually using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS: Between baseline and the 3-year follow-up, 56 subjects with IFG at baseline had developed diabetes. After multivariate adjustment for demographic and clinical factors, the incidence of diabetes increased with higher FPG (odds ratio [OR] 9.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.84-30.48), but decreased with the grip strength/weight ratio (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.94). Moreover, the combination of higher FPG and lower grip strength/weight was associated with a higher incidence of diabetes than higher FPG only or lower grip strength/weight (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: The present study indicates that higher FPG and lower muscle strength are associated with glycemic deterioration among subjects with IFG after 3 years. The results suggest that not only glucose levels, but also physical performance may be useful markers of the risk of diabetes in this population.