Projected stroke volumes to provide a 10-year direction for New Zealand stroke services.

AIMS: Stroke incidence and mortality are declining due to effective public health initatives and modern healthcare advances. However, due to population growth and ageing, the burden of stroke continues to rise worldwide. This paper aims to provide stroke volume projections for the next 1-2 decades and explores potential solutions to anticipated challenges.

METHODS: Health administrative, where available epidemiological, and New Zealand Statistics data was used to model stroke service demand up to 2028.

RESULTS: Despite improvements in stroke prevention and management, stroke volumes are projected to increase by 40% by 2028 due to population growth and, more importantly, ageing. Associated with this increase will be a need for more hospital beds and staff resources.

CONCLUSION: Efforts to optimise stroke service performance and, increasingly, stroke prevention are required to ensure that the New Zealand Health Service will be able to manage the increased volumes of patients. Better data is required to validate the presented figures, which are largely based on unvalidated health administrative data.