New Prediction Score for Hematoma Expansion and Neurological Deterioration after Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Hospital-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To ensure hematoma expansion and neurological deterioration in the management of acute spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, accurate prediction is crucial for initial assessment on admission. We conducted this study to develop a new clinical prediction score using only noncontrast computed tomography image and simply measurable variables.

METHODS: This study was a retrospective cohort analysis. The study took place in a single academic medical center in Japan. Development of the prediction score was conducted based on patients who presented between October 2010 and June 2015, using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. We then validated the results in a second cohort between July 2015 and April 2017. The primary outcome was hematoma expansion and the secondary outcome was neurological deterioration up to 14 days after onset.

RESULTS: In total, 622 patients were included in the analysis after excluding unsuitable cases. Of these, 457 patients were included in the development cohort and 165 were included in the validation cohort, with 10.8% meeting the criteria for hematoma expansion and 8.8% showing neurological deterioration. In the multivariate analysis, predictors of expansion or deterioration were as hematoma heterogeneity on computed tomography, niveau formation, peripheral edema, hematoma volume of more than 30 mL, and anticoagulant use. We then created the HEAVN score based on the univariate regression coefficients. The C-statistics for the hematoma expansion scores were .81 and .80 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Similar results were obtained for neurological deterioration.

CONCLUSIONS: The HEAVN score is simple and useful for predicting hematoma expansion and neurological deterioration based on imaging and background data.