Predictive biomarkers for acute gallstone pancreatitis in the pediatric population.

BACKGROUND: Early biomarkers for diagnosis of gallstone pancreatitis (GP) in pediatrics have not been well studied. Reliably differentiating GP from other causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) would allow for early diagnosis and prompt management. We sought to assess biomarkers and clinical variables for early GP diagnosis from a prospectively-enrolled registry of pediatric patients presenting with first AP episode.

METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of a prospective acute pancreatitis registry of children enrolled from March 2013 through October 2016 was performed. Fisher's exact test and Wilcoxon rank sum test were used to compare demographic and clinical variables between GP and non-GP groups. A multivariable logistic regression model was derived, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was built using stepwise selection.

RESULTS: 114 subjects were enrolled (21 with GP, 93 as non-GP). Median was statistically higher for GP patients in lipase values X upper limit of normal (ULN) on admission, weight percentile for age, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and gamma-glutamyl transferase. By multivariable analysis, significant predictors were ALT and Lipase xULN. A model built using these two variables for prediction of GP identified an AUROC of 0.85. At a predictive probability of 0.35, the model had an 80% sensitivity, 93% specificity, 76% positive predictive value and 95% negative predictive value.

CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a model for predicting GP in children that could help guide clinical management of AP patients. Future studies are needed to validate use of laboratory findings and clinical variables in evaluation of gallstone etiology in pediatric AP patients.