Predicting initial margin status in breast cancer patients during breast-conserving surgery.

Background: We sought to develop and validate a model for prediction of initial margin status during breast-conserving surgery (BCS).

Methods: We included eligible breast cancer patients receiving BCS in Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital from January 2003 to December 2014. All patients received intraoperative frozen-section analysis for initial margin assessment. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to screen for predictors. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort (n=1,193) from the south branch of the hospital and externally validated in the validation cohort (n=499) from the north branch. We used the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests to assess the discrimination and accuracy of the nomogram.

Results: The initial margin-positivity rates were 19.5% and 25.2% in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Preoperative tumor size, preoperative lymph-node status, suspicion of multifocality, hormone-receptor status, and HER2 status were significantly associated with margin status. The model included these five variables. The discrimination and calibration of the model were considered acceptable in both cohorts.

Conclusion: The nomogram can predict the likelihood of having positive initial margins during BCS and may be useful for clinical decision-making in the surgical treatment of breast cancer patients.