Avoidable colorectal cancer cases in Denmark - The impact of red and processed meat.

BACKGROUND: High red and processed meat intakes are associated with increased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. The effect of eliminating or reducing red and processed meat consumption on CRC burden was not previously quantified in Denmark. The aim of this study was to calculate the possible effects of reductions in red and processed meat consumption on future CRC incidence in the Danish adult population.

METHODS: Under six scenarios of prevalence exposure (meat consumption) the number of CRC cases in Denmark for a 30-year period (2016-2045) was estimated and compared to the projected number of CRCs if the prevalence of meat consumption remains constant. Data was obtained from the NORDCAN register, Statistics Denmark, and from the Danish dietary survey data (DANSDA). Analyses were conducted using the Prevent model.

RESULTS: During the 30-year period, a total of 36,767 (19.8%) CRC cases out of 185,937 expected could be avoided in Denmark by eliminating the consumption of both red and processed meat. For the same period, a modest reduction in both red and processed meat consumption could lead to the prevention of 16,964 (9.1%) CRC cases. The greatest reductions were seen among men, and the highest impact was estimated for the elimination or reduction of processed meat consumption.

CONCLUSION: Decreased red and processed meat consumption could reduce the burden of CRC markedly in Denmark. These results can assist public health planners and help highlight the important role of a modest but realistic reduction in meat consumption in the prevention of CRC.