A novel nomogram for the prediction of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma in patients with intrahepatic lithiasis complicated by imagiologically diagnosed mass.

Background: Accurate preoperative diagnosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) among patients with imagiologically intrahepatic lithiasis (IHL) complicated by mass is crucial for timely and effective surgical intervention. The aim of the present study was to develop a nomogram to identify ICC associated with IHL (IHL-ICC).

Patients and methods: Data were obtained from a total of 252 consecutive patients with IHL complicated by mass. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the clinicopathologic and imagiological characteristics that were potentially associated with ICC. A nomogram was developed based on the results of the multivariate analysis, and the value for prediction of ICC was assessed.

Results: The study revealed six potential predictors for IHL-ICC, including comprehensive imagiological diagnosis, biliary tract operation history, fever, ascites, cancer antigen (CA) 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). The optimal cutoff value was 3.75 μg/L for serum CEA and 143.15 U/mL for serum CA 19-9. The accuracy of the nomogram in predicting ICC was 78.5%. The Youden index provided a value of 0.348, corresponding to a cutoff of 95 points, with an area under the curve of 0.863.

Conclusion: The nomogram holds promise as a novel and accurate tool in identifying IHL-ICC for hepatectomy, and in the differentiation of benign occupying lesions in IHL patients, resulting in the avoidance of unnecessary surgical resection.