Heart rate variability testing: could it change spending for rheumatoid arthritis patients in the United States? An exploratory economic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Autonomic nervous system (ANS) testing with heart rate variability (HRV) has been shown in early research to predict 52-week outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). HRV testing could be combined with putative ANS biologic pathways to improve treatment response for RA patients. This study explored potential costs and health outcomes of introducing HRV testing into RA treatment, without and with ANS optimization.

METHODS: A decision tree exploratory economic model compared HRV testing to standard care in moderate-to-severe biologic-eligible patients over a 10-year time horizon. HRV data was derived from an observational study of RA patients (n = 33). Patients were stratified into treatment groups based on HRV test scores indicating "low probability of response" and "moderate to high probability of response". This study explored adding ANS optimization based on HRV score followed by clinically-appropriate treatment. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the US population were estimated.

RESULTS: HRV testing in biologic-eligible patients decreased non-effective biologic use, reducing US healthcare costs by $34.6 billion over 10 years with QALYs unchanged. When combined with ANS optimization in biologic-eligible patients, HRV testing could increase costs by $3.6 billion over 10 years but save over 350,000 QALYs. Among all RA patients, HRV testing with ANS optimization could save over $8 billion and over 100,000 QALYs over 10 years, depending on the positive predictive value (PPV) of the HRV test.

CONCLUSIONS: The potential economic impact of introducing HRV testing and ANS optimization into RA treatment appears substantial and cost-effective based on the exploratory analysis. Additional rigorous studies are warranted in larger patient samples to better inform decision-making.