[Spatial-temporal variations of spring maize potential yields in a changing climate in Northeast China.]

Based on meteorological data, agro-meteorological observations, and agricultural statistical data in Northeast China (NEC), by using the validated Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM-maize), the potential, attainable, potential farmers' and actual farmers' yields of spring maize during the period 1961 to 2015 were analyzed, and the effects of climate variation on maize potential yield in NEC were quantified. Results indicated that the potential yield of spring maize was 12.2 t·hm-2 during the period 1961 to 2015, with those in northeast being lower than southwest within the study region. The attainable yield of spring maize was 11.3 t·hm-2 , and showed a similar spatial distribution with potential yield. Under the current farmers' management practices, mean simulated potential and actual farmers' yields were 6.5 and 4.5 t·hm-2 , respectively. Assuming there were no changes in cultivars and management practices in NEC, the mean potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields of spring maize would decrease by 0.34, 0.25 and 0.10 t·hm-2 per decade in NEC. However, the actual farmers' yields increased with the value of 1.27 t·hm-2 per decade averaged over NEC. Due to climate variation, year-to-year variations of spring maize potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields were significant, ranging from 10.0 to 14.4, 9.8 to 13.3, 4.4 to 8.5 t·hm-2 , respectively.