Nomograms are key decision-making tools in prostate cancer radiation therapy.

BACKGROUND: The use of nomograms for predicting clinical endpoints has been well documented. Nomograms provide an individualized prognosis and help clinicians determine the effectiveness of treatment for a given patient. Early identification of potential treatment failure or toxicity allows alternative approaches to be considered, reducing unnecessary treatment, morbidity, and cost. This review aims to evaluate clinical potential of nomogram use for the management of prostate cancer radiotherapy patients.

METHODS: PubMed, Embase, and Scopus were searched for literature published between 2006 and 2016. The reported correlation between measured and nomogram-predicted probabilities of biochemical control, disease progression, survival and toxicity was reviewed, through an analysis of concordance indexes and areas under the curves.

RESULTS: Sixteen studies were reviewed. Outcomes predicted by the nomogram were very close to outcomes measured (concordance index of 0.7 and above) in the majority. But a combination of under and overestimation of outcome was also reported. The predictive accuracy of nomograms was very variable, however, most nomograms had accuracy greater than chance, indicated by a concordance index higher than 0.5.

CONCLUSION: Nomograms can be used as prognostic guides to aid clinical decision-making for prostate cancer patients until further research addresses the limitations presented in this review. Strict definitions of end points should be added to future models and perhaps models could be enhanced with the incorporation of genomic variables or tumor specific parameters.