The challenge of estimating tuberculosis mortality accurately in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimates of tuberculosis (TB) mortality are required to monitor progress towards the World Health Organization End TB goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% by 2035. We compared TB death data for England and Wales from the national surveillance system (Enhanced Tuberculosis Surveillance System [ETS]) and the vital registration system from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

METHODS: TB cases notified in ETS were matched to deaths in ONS (dONS) with International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes indicating that TB caused/contributed to the death (A15-A19). Deaths captured in one but not both systems were assessed to identify if ONS captured all TB deaths and if there was under-notification of TB in ETS. We stratified deaths into active TB, TB sequelae, incidental deaths and not TB.

RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2015, there were fewer deaths in ETS (dETS) than dONS with ICD-10 codes A15-A19 (n = 4207 vs. n = 6560); 57% of dETS were recorded as dONS and 53% of dONS were notified to ETS. A total of 9289 deaths were identified from dETS and dONS: 64% were due to active TB, 23% were TB sequelae, 6% were incidental and 7% were not TB.

CONCLUSIONS: TB deaths in ETS and ONS differ substantially. Almost one third of TB deaths recorded by ONS are not due to active TB; this can be amended through coding changes.