Predictive Nomograms for Synchronous Distant Metastasis in Rectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Nomograms may be used to quantitatively assess the probability of synchronous distant metastasis. The purpose of this study is to develop predictive nomograms for the presence of synchronous distant metastasis in patients with rectal cancer.

METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database was performed for cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2014.

RESULTS: Overall, 46,785 patients with rectal cancer (27,773 [59.4%] males, mean age 63.9 ± 13.7 years) were identified, of which 6192 (13.2%) had liver metastasis, 2767 (5.9%) had lung metastasis, and 601 (1.3%) had bone metastasis. Age, sex, race, tumor location, tumor grade, primary tumor size, CEA levels, perineural invasion, T stage, N stage, and liver and lung metastasis were found to be associated with the presence of synchronous distant metastasis and were included in the predictive models. The c-indexes of these models were 0.99 for liver metastasis, 0.99 for lung metastasis, and 1 for bone metastasis.

CONCLUSIONS: Predictive nomograms for the presence of synchronous liver, lung, and bone metastasis were developed and may be used to predict the probability of distant disease in rectal cancer patients.