Predictive Model for Secundum Atrial Septal Defect Closure with Pulmonary Artery Hypertension in Adult: When to Close.

BACKGROUND: Secundum atrial septal defect (SASD) closure is contraindicated in the presence of severe pulmonary artery hypertension (PAH). However, there is no consensus on the threshold of severe PAH, in terms of mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP), which would contraindicate for defect closure surgery in adults. Furthermore, PAH can persist, or even increase in severity, after the closure. The aim of this study was to produce a predictive model correlating mPAP in adult SASD patients with PAH after defect closure surgery. Methods: Between January 2014 and March 2017, 29 consecutive adult SASD patients who had PAH and underwent defect closure surgery were included in the study. Age, right atrium (RA) dimension, right ventricle (RV) dimension, and mPAP before surgery were analyzed using multiple regression to produce the model.

RESULTS: Multiple regression produced the following model: mPAP prediction = (0.24)(Age) + (0.06)(mPAP before surgery) + (0.17)(RA dimension) + (0.47)(RV dimension) - 13.79 (P = .0008). The mPAP prediction was compared to mPAP of the patients six to nine months after surgery, and showed no significant difference (P = .9562). Conclusion: In adult SASD patients with PAH, our model can significantly predict the mPAP after the closure. If the predicted mPAP is within its normal range, the closure is indicated.