Changing trends in the incidence of invasive melanoma in Victoria, 1985-2015.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Victoria; to examine trends in its incidence over the past 30 years. Secondary objectives were to examine the anatomic location and thickness of invasive melanoma tumours during the same period.

DESIGN: Population-based, descriptive analysis of Victorian Cancer Registry data.

PARTICIPANTS: Victorian residents diagnosed with melanoma, 1985-2015.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-standardised incidence of invasive melanoma; estimated annual percentage changes in incidence.

RESULTS: In 2015, the incidence of invasive melanoma in Victoria was 52.9 cases per 100 000 men and 39.2 cases per 100 000 women. Since the mid-1990s, the incidence for men increased annually by 0.9% (95% CI, 0.3-1.5%), but for women there was no significant change (estimated annual percentage change, -0.1%; 95% CI, -0.8% to 0.5%). The incidence of invasive melanoma has been declining in age groups under 55 years of age since 1996 (overall annual change, -1.7%; 95% CI, -2.5% to -0.9%), but is still increasing in those over 55 (overall annual change, 1.6%; 95% CI, 1.0-2.2%). The most frequent site of tumours in men was the trunk (40%), on women the upper (32%) and lower limbs (31%).

CONCLUSIONS: Melanoma remains a significant health problem, warranting continued prevention efforts. Awareness of differences in presentation by men and women and in different age groups would facilitate improved screening and risk identification.