Non-alcoholic steatofibrosis (NASF) can independently predict mortality in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Background: Hepatic fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) independently predicts mortality. Given liver biopsy's invasive nature, non-invasive method to assess hepatic steatosis and fibrosis provides NAFLD risk stratification algorithm in clinical practice. NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) is simple and non-invasive predictive model recommended by American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) Guideline to identify patients with NAFLD with fibrosis risk. The aim of this study is to assess long-term outcomes of subjects with significant non-alcoholic steatofibrosis (NASF) as established by ultrasound (US) and NFS.

Methods: Used National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) with National Death Index-linked Mortality Files. NAFLD diagnosis established by the presence of moderate to severe hepatic steatosis on US without other causes of chronic liver disease (alcohol consumption <20 gr/day, hepatitis B surface-antigen negative, anti-hepatitis C virus antibody negative, transferrin saturation <50%). Significant hepatic fibrosis was estimated by high NFS (>0.676) and calculated with previously published formula. Subjects with NAFLD and high NFS have significant NASF.

Results: NHANES III included 20 050 adult participants. 2515 participants complete data and NAFLD with 5.1% (n=129) meeting criteria for significant SF. Subjects with significant SF were older, had higher body mass index, waist circumference and the homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) scores and higher rates of comorbidities (diabetes, congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke; all p<0.001). After median of 207 months of follow-up, overall mortality in NAFLD cohort was 30.0% (n=754). Crude mortality higher in subjects with significant SF (67.4% vs 28.0%, p<0.001). In multivariate survival analysis, predictors of overall mortality included significant SF (adjusted HR (aHR): 1.37; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.76, p=0.01), older age (aHR:1.08; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.09 per year), male gender (aHR:1.44; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.67), black race (aHR:1.24; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.48)), history of hypertension (aHR:1.40; 95% CI 1.20 to 1.64), diabetes (aHR:1.69; 95% CI 1.43 to 2.00), CHF (aHR:1.77; 95% CI 1.38 to 2.261), stroke (aHR:1.84; 95% CI 1.38 to 2.48) and smoking (aHR:1.74; 95% CI 1.47 to 2.07) (all p<0.02). Sensitivity analysis showed that the best association of SF with mortality is higher at NFS threshold of 0.80 (aHR:1.41; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.83, p=0.01).

Conclusions: Significant NASF determined non-invasively is an independent predictor of mortality. These data should help clinicians to easily risk-stratify patients with NAFLD for close monitoring and treatment considerations in clinical trial setting.