Effect of climatic variation on the morphological characteristics of 37-year-old balsam fir provenances planted in a common garden in New Brunswick, Canada.

The extent of the effect of projected changes in climate on trees remains unclear. This study investigated the effect of climatic variation on morphological traits of balsam fir [ Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.] provenances sourced from locations spanning latitudes from 44° to 51°N and longitudes from 53° to 102°W across North America, growing in a common garden in eastern Canada. Lower latitude provenances performed significantly better than higher latitude provenances ( p < .05) with regard to diameter at breast height (DBH), height (H), and crown width (CW), a distinction indicative of genotypic control of these traits. There was, however, no significant difference among provenances in terms of survival ( p  >   .05), an indication of a resource allocation strategy directed at survival relative to productivity in higher latitude provenances as seen in their lower DBH, H, and CW compared to the lower latitude provenances. Temperature had a stronger relationship with DBH, H, and CW than precipitation, a reflection of adaptation to local conditions in populations of the species along latitudinal gradients. Both climatic variables had some effect on tree survival. These results suggest that the response of balsam fir to climatic variation will likely not be uniform in the species, but differ based on genetic characteristics between populations located in the northern and southern parts of the species' range. Population differences in response to climatic variation may be evident earlier in growth traits, compared to survival in balsam fir. The findings of this study will facilitate modeling in the species that is reflective of genetic variation in response to climatic conditions, and guide provenance selection for utilization in terms of productivity or resilience as well as breeding programs directed at obtaining species that possibly combine both traits.