Risk score prediction model for dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: No study has established a prediction dementia model in the Asian populations. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for dementia in Chinese type 2 diabetes patients.

METHODS: The retrospective cohort study included 27 540 Chinese type 2 diabetes patients (aged 50-94 years) enrolled in the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program. Participants were randomly allocated into derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors for dementia in the derivation set. Steps proposed by the Framingham Heart Study were used to establish a prediction model with a scoring system.

RESULTS: The average follow-up was 8.09 years, with a total of 853 incident dementia cases in the derivation set. The dementia risk score summed up the individual scores (from 0 to 20). The areas under the curve of 3-, 5- and 10-year dementia risks were 0.82, 0.79 and 0.76 in the derivation set and 0.84, 0.80 and 0.75 in the validation set, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: The proposed score system is the first dementia risk prediction model for Chinese type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan.