Frailty as a predictor of mortality and hospital services use in older adults: a cluster analysis in a cohort study.

Background: Lowering mortality and hospitalization of older adults is one of the main goals of public health to improve both health systems' sustainability and older adults' quality of life. The aim of this study is to identify the determinants associated with mortality and the use of hospital services in the population older than 64 years of age.

Methods: A randomized sample from the population of the Lazio region (Italy) above the age of 64 was enrolled in 2014 by the administration of a questionnaire to assess frailty; the rates of use of hospital services and mortality in the year following the enrolment have been retrieved by the regional database. Univariable and multivariable analyses addressed the association of health status, social and economic variables with health outcomes.

Results: One thousand two hundred and eighty persons were recruited; 52 deaths were reported at 1 year of follow-up (robust 1.8%, frail 10.1% and very frail 19.1%, P < 0.001). The mean rate of use of hospital services was 692.2 per 1000 observation/year (robust 589.5, frail 1191.1 and very frail 848.4, P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the higher rate of use of hospital services was independently associated with functional status, social support, psychological/psychiatric discomfort, availability of home care services and physical health.

Conclusions: Frailty, as a multidimensional issue, is also a strong predictor of survival in the short term. The use of the hospital services by older adults is associated mainly with functional status, social resources, psycho-physical status and health service organization factors.