Longitudinal Associations of Metabolic Syndrome Severity Between Childhood and Young Adulthood: The Bogalusa Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood metabolic syndrome (MetS) is associated with insulin resistance and increased risk for later development of type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). In using MetS severity z-scores, our objective was to assess longitudinal associations in MetS severity, fasting insulin levels as a sign of insulin resistance and risk for T2DM, and uric acid levels as a biomarker of oxidative stress leading to CVD.

METHODS: We used linear regression to analyze longitudinal data from 285 white and black participants from the Bogalusa Heart Study evaluated at baseline at ages 5-19 and as young adults after a mean of 12.0 years follow-up. We assessed correlations between childhood MetS severity and young-adult MetS severity, fasting insulin, and uric acid levels, both overall and by sex- and racial subgroups.

RESULTS: Overall, childhood MetS z-scores were positively associated with young-adult MetS z-scores (r = 0.52), insulin (r = 0.34), and uric acid (r = 0.28) (all P < 0.001). These associations were consistent across all sex- and racial subgroups, except for young adult uric acid in white males in which childhood MetS-z was not associated (r = 0.15, P = 0.243). There was a strong cross-sectional association of young-adult MetS z-scores with insulin (r = 0.70) and uric acid (r = 0.57) (both P < 0.001), which was consistent for all sex- and racial subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS: These positive longitudinal correlations between childhood MetS z-scores and markers of later insulin resistance and oxidative stress suggest long-term durability of risk for CVD and T2DM. This suggests potential for MetS severity to serve as an indicator to monitor for future risk of T2DM and CVD.