Potential health impact of strong tobacco control policies in 11 South Eastern WHO European Region countries.

Background: While some WHO European Region countries are global tobacco control leaders, the South Eastern region of Europe has the highest tobacco smoking prevalence globally and a relatively low level of overall implementation of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (WHO FCTC). An abridged version of SimSmoke has been developed to project the health impact of implementing tobacco control policies in line with the WHO FCTC.

Methods: Data on population size, smoking prevalence, policy-specific effect sizes and formulas were applied in 11 South Eastern WHO European Region countries [Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Republika Srpska), Bulgaria, Croatia, Israel, Montenegro, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia] to project the relative reduction in smoking prevalence, number of smokers and number of smoking-attributable deaths resulting from implementing individual and/or combined six WHO FCTC measures.

Results: For all countries, an increase in excise cigarette taxes to 75% of price yields the largest relative reduction in smoking prevalence (range 8-28%). The projections show that within 15 years smoking prevalence can be reduced by at least 30% in all countries when all six tobacco control measures are fully implemented in line with the WHO FCTC.

Conclusion: The projections show that large health effects can be achieved and the results can be used as an advocacy tool towards acceleration of the enforcement of tobacco control laws in WHO European Region countries.