Three Gorges Dam: polynomial regression modeling of water level and the density of schistosome-transmitting snails Oncomelania hupensis.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis remains a major public health concern in China. Oncomelania hupensis (O. hupensis) is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum, and its change in distribution and density influences the endemic S. japonicum. The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has substantially changed the downstream water levels of the dam. This study investigated the quantitative relationship between flooding duration and the density of the snail population.

METHODS: Two bottomlands without any control measures for snails were selected in Yueyang City, Hunan Province. Data for the density of the snail population and water level in both spring and autumn were collected for the period 2009-2015. Polynomial regression analysis was applied to explore the relationship between flooding duration and the density of the snail population.

RESULTS: Data showed a convex relationship between spring snail density and flooding duration of the previous year (adjusted R2 , aR2  = 0.61). The spring snail density remained low when the flooding duration was fewer than 50 days in the previous year, was the highest when the flooding duration was 123 days, and decreased thereafter. There was a similar convex relationship between autumn snail density and flooding duration of the current year (aR2  = 0.77). The snail density was low when the flooding duration was fewer than 50 days and was the highest when the flooding duration was 139 days.

CONCLUSIONS: There was a convex relationship between flooding duration and the spring or autumn snail density. The snail density was the highest when flooding lasted about four to 5 months.