['Will I receive a liver transplant in time?'; chance of survival of patients on the liver transplant waiting list].

OBJECTIVE: To calculate the chance of receiving a liver transplant for patients on the liver transplant waiting list in the Netherlands.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort research.

METHOD: Data of all patients in the Netherlands on the waiting list for liver transplantation, from the introduction of the model of end-stage liver disease score on 16th December 2006 through to 31st December 2013 were collected. Survival analysis was computed with competing risk analyses.

RESULTS: A total of 851 patients were listed, of whom 236 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, 147 patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis, 142 patients with post-alcoholic liver disease, 93 patients with metabolic liver disease, 78 with viral hepatitis and 155 patients listed for other indications. The median waiting time till transplantation was 196 days. The chance to be transplanted at two years from listing was 65% and the risk of death was 17%. Patients with metabolic liver disease had the highest chance of undergoing liver transplantation. Patients with viral hepatitis were at highest risk of death while on the list, as well as having the lowest chance of undergoing liver transplantation.

CONCLUSION: Our study shows a 65% chance of getting transplanted in time after a median waiting time of 6 months in the Netherlands. Sadly, 1 in 6 patients die before liver transplantation can be performed, with the highest risk of death occurring in patients with viral hepatitis.