Risk of malignancy in resected pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCNs) are rare mucin-producing cystic tumours defined by the presence of ovarian-type stroma. MCNs have a malignant potential and thus surgery is frequently performed. The aim of this cohort study was to define better the criteria for surgical resection in patients with MCN.

METHODS: This multicentre retrospective study included all resected MCNs between 2003 and 2015 in participating centres. Lesions without ovarian-type stroma were excluded. Patient characteristics, preoperative findings, histopathology findings and follow-up data were recorded.

RESULTS: The study included 211 patients; their median age was 53 (range 18-82) years, and 202 (95·7 per cent) were women. Median preoperative tumour size was 55 (range 12-230) mm. Thirty-four of the 211 (16·1 per cent) were malignant, and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) was found in a further 13 (6·2 per cent). One-third of MCNs in men were associated with invasive cancer, compared with 15·3 per cent in women. Five cases of malignant transformation occurred in MCNs smaller than 4 cm. All cases of malignancy or HGD were associated with symptoms or features of concern on preoperative cross-sectional imaging. In multivariable analysis, raised carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (odds ratio (OR) 10·54, 95 per cent c.i. 2·85 to 218·23; P < 0·001), tumour size (OR 4·23, 3·02 to 11·03; P = 0·001), mural nodules (OR 3·55, 1·31 to 20·55; P = 0·002) and weight loss (OR 3·40, 2·34 to 12·34; P = 0·034) were independent factors predictive of malignant transformation.

CONCLUSIONS: Small indeterminate MCNs with no symptoms or features of concern may safely be observed as they have a low risk of malignant transformation.