Greater low-density lipoprotein cholesterol variability is associated with increased progression to dialysis in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 3.

Increasing evidence suggests that lipid variability may be a predictor of cardiovascular events. However, few studies have evaluated the association between lipid variability and renal outcomes in patients with moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Therefore, the aims of this study were to assess whether lipid variability is associated with progression to dialysis in patients with CKD stage 3-5, and to evaluate the risk factors of lipid variability. This longitudinal study enrolled 725 patients with CKD stage 3-5. Intra-individual lipid variability was defined as the standard deviations (SDs) of lipid levels. The renal end-point was defined as commencing dialysis. During a mean follow-up period of 3.2 years, 208 patients (28.7%) started dialysis. The patients with CKD stage 3 with high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol SD (per 1 mg/dL; hazard ratio, 1.035; 95% confidence interval, 1.003 to 1.067; p = 0.003) were associated with an increased risk of progression to dialysis, however this association was not seen in the patients with CKD stage 4 or 5. Furthermore, in the patients with CKD stage 3, a high urine protein-to-creatinine ratio ( p < 0.001) and the use of statins ( p < 0.001) were significantly associated with an increased LDL-cholesterol SD. Greater LDL-cholesterol variability was associated with an increased risk of progression to dialysis in patients with CKD stage 3, but not in those with CKD stage 4 or 5. These findings support the potential role of aggressive lipid control on clinical outcomes and highlight its importance in patients with CKD stage 3.