Application of Bayes' to the prediction of referral decisions made by specialist optometrists in relation to chronic open angle glaucoma.

PURPOSE: To determine the accuracy of a Bayesian learning scheme (Bayes') applied to the prediction of clinical decisions made by specialist optometrists in relation to the referral refinement of chronic open angle glaucoma.

METHODS: This cross-sectional observational study involved collection of data from the worst affected or right eyes of a consecutive sample of cases (n = 1,006) referred into the West Kent Clinical Commissioning Group Community Ophthalmology Team (COT) by high street optometrists. Multilevel classification of each case was based on race, sex, age, family history of chronic open angle glaucoma, reason for referral, Goldmann Applanation Tonometry (intraocular pressure and interocular asymmetry), optic nerve head assessment (vertical size, cup disc ratio and interocular asymmetry), central corneal thickness and visual field analysis (Hodapp-Parrish-Anderson classification). Randomised stratified tenfold cross-validation was applied to determine the accuracy of Bayes' by comparing its output to the clinical decisions of three COT specialist optometrists; namely, the decision to discharge, follow-up or refer each case.

RESULTS: Outcomes of cross-validation, expressed as means and standard deviations, showed that the accuracy of Bayes' was high (95%, 2.0%) but that it falsely discharged (3.4%, 1.6%) or referred (3.1%, 1.5%) some cases.

CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that Bayes' has the potential to augment the decisions of specialist optometrists.