Successful Present, Successful Future? Assessment of a Nonbinary Model of Successful Aging.

PURPOSE: Though many models of successful aging exist, there is a need for assessments of the empirical validity of these models and their measures. This study tests the validity of the multidimensional model of successful aging presented by Young and colleagues.

DESIGN AND METHODS: Expanding on an earlier validation study, this analysis uses 1,211 respondents from the Americans' Changing Lives (ACL) study to determine predictive and discriminant validity. Respondents were surveyed in 1986, 1989, and 1994, providing an opportunity to assess if a baseline 5-point successful aging scale is associated with present and future outcomes. Validators include self-report items and interviewer recorded observations. In addition, a survival analysis of 24 years of ACL mortality data is conducted to confirm that baseline successful aging decreases risk of all-cause mortality.

RESULTS: Results illustrate that, in some cases as far as 8 years in the future, low successful aging scores correspond with higher risk of future hospitalization and depressive episodes, interviewer observed difficulty moving around, low self-rated health, and decreased life satisfaction. Lowest scorers also had a 356% higher risk of mortality compared to individuals with the highest scores.

IMPLICATIONS: These findings provide further evidence that Young and colleagues' successful aging construct is empirically valid and could be applied in future research and practice. Most respondents had middling scores, suggesting that future analyses should be cautious about concealing heterogeneity by operationalizing successful aging as a binary outcome.