Pancreatic Cancer Mortality in China: Characteristics and Prediction.

OBJECTIVES: During the last decade, the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer in China has significantly increased. We analyzed data for the period 1991-2014 to investigate the distribution of mortality rates and predict trends for the next 5 years.

METHODS: We obtained the pancreatic mortality data from the Chinese cancer annual report. Trend surface analysis was applied to study the geographical distribution. We used curve estimation, time series, grey box modeling, and joinpoint regression to predict the mortality rate.

RESULTS: Standardized pancreatic cancer mortality rate increased during 1991-2014 and might peak in the ensuing 5 years in China. The mortality rate was higher among elderly people and in urban and northeast/eastern areas than among young people and in rural and middle/western areas.

CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic cancer mortality shows an increasing trend, which is related to the socioeconomic development of China and the ageing of the population. Prevention strategies should be aimed at urban men 45 years or older, especially those residing in higher-mortality rate areas.