Risk Modeling to Optimize Patient Selection for Management of the Descending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysm.

BACKGROUND: A single-institutional study comparing early and long-term outcomes of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) and open surgical repair (OSR) was performed to determine the appropriate treatment option for descending thoracic aortic aneurysm (DTAA).

METHODS: Between 2005 and 2014, 438 DTAA patients were treated (TEVAR, 88; OSR, 350). Acute dissection and traumatic injury were excluded. Perioperative and follow-up data were reviewed. Stratified analyses were conducted to identify patients most likely to benefit from TEVAR. A propensity score for TEVAR was developed by logistic regression, and predictive logistic and Cox regression models for death were adjusted for propensity score.

RESULTS: TEVAR patients were frequently older women with emergent status, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or coronary artery disease. TEVAR had similar immediate (0% vs 1%; p = 0.588) and delayed (5% vs 6%, p = 1.000) motor deficits and early mortality (6% vs 12%, p = 0.121) but lower dialysis (3% vs 18%, p < 0.001), respiratory failure (10% vs 34%, p < 0.001), and intensive care unit stay (2.0 vs 5.0 days, p < 0.001). Early mortality after TEVAR was lower in septuagenarians (3% vs 16%, p < 0.02), glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min (8% vs 32%, p < 0.049), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (6% vs 21%, p < 0.02), defined as target population that had fourfold mortality reduction (p < 0.006) attributable to TEVAR. Propensity-adjusted predictors of early mortality predictors included OSR (odds ratio [OR], 4.3; p < 0.024), target population (OR, 7.7; p < 0.001), diabetes (OR, 3; p < 0.009), peripheral vascular disease (OR, 4.7; p < 0.001), and emergent status (OR, 4.6; p < 0.001). Propensity-adjusted determinants of survival were age, glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min, peripheral vascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and emergent status.

CONCLUSIONS: In older patients with significant comorbidities, TEVAR demonstrated superior results compared with OSR and may be preferable in this target population.