Acute effect of multiple ozone metrics on mortality by season in 34 Chinese counties in 2013-2015.

BACKGROUND: Although numerous multicentre studies have estimated the association between ozone exposure and mortality, there are currently no nationally representative multicentre studies of the ozone-mortality relationship in China.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect on total (nonaccidental) and cause-specific mortality of short-term exposure to ambient ozone, and examine different exposure metrics.

METHODS: The effects of short-term exposure to ozone were analysed using various metrics (daily 1-h maximum, daily 8-h maximum and daily average) on total (nonaccidental) and cause-specific (circulatory and respiratory) mortality from 2013 to 2015 in 34 counties in 10 cities across China. We used distributed lag nonlinear models for estimating county-specific relative risk of mortality and combined the county-specific relative rates by conducting a random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS: In all-year analyses, a 10 μg m-3 increase in daily average, daily 1-h maximum and daily 8-h maximum ozone at lag02 corresponded to an increase of 0.6% (95% CI: 0.33, 0.88), 0.26% (95% CI: 0.12, 0.39) and 0.37% (95% CI: 0.2, 0.55) in total (nonaccidental) mortality, 0.66% (95% CI: 0.28, 1.04), 0.31% (95% CI: 0.11, 0.51) and 0.39% (95% CI: 0.16, 0.62) in circulatory mortality, and 0.57% (95% CI: -0.09, 1.23), 0.11% (95% CI: -0.22, 0.44) and 0.22% (95% CI: -0.28, 0.72) in respiratory mortality, respectively. These estimates had a different seasonal pattern by cause of death. In general, the seasonal patterns were consistent with the times of year when ozone concentrations are highest.

CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that in China, the acute effects of ozone are more closely related to daily average exposure than any other metric.