Retrospective analysis of the development of PIRADS 3 lesions over time: when is a follow-up MRI reasonable?

PURPOSE: Often PIRADS 3 findings are usually followed up with further MRIs of the prostate. Current guidelines do not state an optimal interval between the initial MRI and the follow-up MRI. The aim of this study was to find out if PIRADS 3 lesions evolve over time and to determine how long the optimal interval between initial MRI and follow-ups should be.

METHODS: In this retrospective study, 141 consecutive patients were included who underwent at least one follow-up MRI after an initial PIRADS 3 finding. Changes in PIRADS score and the interval between the first and the follow-up MRI were recorded. An optimal duration was calculated.

RESULTS: Of all patients, 76.6% had a change from PIRADS 3 to either 2 or 4 in the first follow-up MRI. Reclassifications to PIRADS 4 happened earlier than reclassifications to PIRADS 2 (after 366.5 ± 217.9 days and after 534.2 ± 253.0 days, respectively). An optimal point of time for a follow-up to distinguish between changes to PIRADS 2 versus PIRADS 4 turned out to be 379 days (12.4 months, AUC 0.734, p = 0.0001). Of all patients with a PIRADS 3 lesion 14.8% harboured a prostate carcinoma.

CONCLUSION: Performing follow-up mpMRI rather than immediate biopsy may be beneficial for patients with PIRADS 3, as most lesions can be reclassified after a manageable period of time. Upgrades to PIRADS 4 seem to happen earlier and within fewer follow-ups than downgrades to PIRADS 2. The optimal interval for follow-up MRIs seems to be 12.4 months.