Timed Up and Go Test can predict recurrent falls: a longitudinal study of the community-dwelling elderly in China.

Purpose: Falling is a major health problem in community-dwelling elderly individuals. The aim of the present study was to conduct a prospective investigation to evaluate the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT), 4-meter walking test, and grip strength test to screen for the risk of falls and to determine a cutoff point to be used clinically.

Patients and methods: This was a prospective study that included 541 participants. The fall data were obtained via face-to-face interview, and the date, site, and circumstances of any falls were recorded. TUGTs were recorded as part of a comprehensive geriatric assessment. We collected the same data at baseline and after follow-up via comprehensive geriatric assessment.

Results: The incidence of falls of our study subjects was 20.8%. The recurrent-fall group had a fall rate of 6.8% during the follow-up year. The standard area under the curve (AUC) of our screening tool was >0.70, and hence our tool can be used for clinical purposes. After adjusting for age and gender, the AUC of TUGT became 0.642, so it cannot be used as a predictive tool for measuring any types of falls. However, when recurrent falls were adjusted for age and gender, the TUGT's AUC improved to 0.733 and a score of 15.96 seconds is used as a cut-point to screen recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly Chinese individuals.

Conclusion: Future falls were best predicted by TUGT in recurrent fallers at baseline. A score of 15.96 seconds is used as a cut-point to screen recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly Chinese individuals.