Case Study of an Epidemiological Approach Dissecting Historical Soybean Sclerotinia Stem Rot Observations and Identifying Environmental Predictors of Epidemics and Yield Loss.

Sclerotinia sclerotiorum is a significant threat to soybean production worldwide. In this study, an epidemiological approach was used to examine 11 years of historical data from a soybean management performance trial in order to advance our understanding of Sclerotinia stem rot (SSR) development and to identify environmental predictors of SSR epidemics and associated yield losses. Recursive partitioning analysis suggested that average air temperature and total precipitation in July were the most significant variables associated with disease severity. High levels of SSR disease severity index were observed when the average temperature in July was below 19.5°C and total precipitation in July was moderate, between 20 and 108.5 mm. A biphasic sigmoidal curve accurately described the relationship between SSR disease severity index (DSI) and yield, with a DSI threshold of 22, below which minimal yield loss was observed. A 10% increase in the DSI, from 22.0 to 24.2, led to an 11% decrease in yield, from 3,308.14 to 2,951.29 kg/ha. Also, a yield threshold (3,353 kg/ha) that was higher than the annual U.S. average soybean yield (3,039.7 kg/ha) was suggested as an expected yield under low or no SSR pressure in the U.S. Midwest. These thresholds can allow soybean stakeholders to assess the value of disease control and establish an SSR baseline for cost-effective management to protect yields. Because S. sclerotiorum has more than 400 plant host species, and because having quantitative information concerning crop losses is crucial for decision making, this study shows the usefulness of historical data on SSR and, hence, can serve as a model in other SSR pathosystems (canola, dry bean, potato, pea, and so on).