Regional healthcare delivery and demographic change in Germany - scenarios for dermatological care in 2035.

BACKGROUND: The 'demand planning guidelines' issued by the Federal Joint Committee are meant to ensure nationwide delivery of healthcare in Germany. The calculatory variable used to reflect the actual care situation in relation to a given geographical entity is referred to as 'adjusted supply rate'. Against the backdrop of demographic change and already existing problems in replacing retiring physicians, the question arises as to how future dermatological care will evolve at the regional level.

METHODS: Using current 'demand planning guidelines' as well as nationwide data on the location of dermatologists and current and projected population figures at the county level, the adjusted supply rate - in terms of dermatological care - was calculated for the year 2035 based on three possible scenarios (scenario 1: 100 % replacement of retiring dermatologists; scenario 2: non-replacement of one dermatologist per planning area; and scenario 3: non-replacement of two dermatologists in rural areas).

RESULTS: While scenario 1 shows an actual improvement in regional dermatological care in certain areas between 2014 and 2035 (n = 3 no longer undersupplied), the more likely scenarios 2 and 3 are potentially associated with considerable regional undersupply.

CONCLUSIONS: Taking demographic change into account, it is safe to assume that the geographical heterogeneity of dermatological care will increase. This requires greater effort not only in terms of demand planning but also with regard to offering alternative methods of delivering healthcare and intercommunal cooperation. In this context, the objective will be to adapt healthcare delivery to changes both in demography as well as in the plans young physicians have for their own lives.