Tennessee's In-state Vulnerability Assessment for a "Rapid Dissemination of Human Immunodeficiency Virus or Hepatitis C Virus Infection" Event Utilizing Data About the Opioid Epidemic.

Background: Knowing which factors contribute to county-level vulnerability to a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) outbreak, and which counties are most vulnerable, guides public health and clinical interventions. We therefore examined the impact of locally available indicators related to the opioid epidemic on prior national models of HIV/HCV outbreak vulnerability.

Methods: Tennessee's 95 counties were the study sample. Predictors from 2012 and 2013 were used, mirroring prior methodology from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Acute HCV incidence was the proxy measure of county-level vulnerability. Seventy-eight predictors were identified as potentially predictive for HIV/HCV vulnerability. We used multiple dimension reduction techniques to determine predictors for inclusion and Poisson regression to generate a composite index score ranking county-level vulnerability for HIV/HCV.

Results: There was overlap of high-risk counties with the national analysis (25 of 41 counties). The distribution of vulnerability reinforces earlier research indicating that eastern Tennessee is at particularly high risk but also demonstrates that the entire state has high vulnerability.

Conclusions: Prior research placed Tennessee among the top states for opioid prescribing, acute HCV infection, and greatest risk for an HIV/HCV outbreak. Given this confluence of risk, the Tennessee Department of Health expanded upon prior work to include more granular, local data, including on opioid prescribing. We also explored nonfatal and fatal overdoses. The more complete statewide view of risk generated, not only in eastern counties but also in the western corridor, will enable local officials to monitor vulnerability and better target resources.