Providing cardiothoracic services in 2035: Signs of trouble ahead.

OBJECTIVE: As the population ages, we will present the reality around being able to meet the health care needs of our population. In particular, we will present that providing cardiothoracic services in 2035 with a shortage of surgeons and an unknown caseload may be an impossibility.

METHODS: By using data from the American Board of Thoracic Surgery, we estimate that in 2010, 4000 cardiothoracic surgeons performed more than 530,000 cases. Additionally, cardiothoracic residency programs train and certify on average 90 new surgeons every year. To estimate the number of cases for 2035, we consulted the Census Bureau figures for 2010 and population projections for 2035. We then estimated the expected caseload for cardiothoracic surgeons relative to heart surgery, as well as lung and esophageal surgery. We found that among 2010 cardiothoracic surgeons in the United States, they completed more than 530,000 cases.

RESULTS: We project that by 2035 there will be 853,912 cases to perform, representing an increase from 2010 to 2035 of approximately 61% nationally. The cases per surgeon, per year, in 2010 averaged 135 for almost each of the 4000 surgeons. In 2035, the average caseload per surgeon will be 299 cases, representing an increase of 121% for the individual surgeon.

CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that by 2035, cardiothoracic surgeons will be responsible for more than 850,000 patients requiring surgery. This represents a 61% increase in the national case load and a potential for a 121% increase for each cardiothoracic surgeon. We believe this is not feasible and a sign of trouble ahead.