International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded obesity predicts risk of incident osteoporotic fracture.

International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes have been used to ascertain individuals who are obese. There has been limited research about the predictive value of ICD-coded obesity for major chronic conditions at the population level. We tested the utility of ICD-coded obesity versus measured obesity for predicting incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), after adjusting for covariates (i.e., age and sex). In this historical cohort study (2001-2015), we selected 61,854 individuals aged 50 years and older from the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Database, Canada. Body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m2 was used to define measured obesity. Hospital and physician ICD codes were used to ascertain ICD-coded obesity and incident MOF. Average cohort age was 66.3 years and 90.3% were female. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value for ICD-coded obesity using measured obesity as the reference were 0.11 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10, 0.11), 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99, 0.99) and 0.79 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.81), respectively. ICD-coded obesity (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.83; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.99) and measured obesity (adjusted HR 0.83; 95% CI: 0.78, 0.88) were associated with decreased MOF risk. Although the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) estimates for incident MOF were not significantly different for ICD-coded obesity versus measured obesity (0.648 for ICD-coded obesity versus 0.650 for measured obesity; P = 0.056 for AUROC difference), the category-free net reclassification index for ICD-coded obesity versus measured obesity was -0.08 (95% CI: -0.11, -0.06) for predicting incident MOF. ICD-coded obesity predicted incident MOF, though it had low sensitivity and reclassified MOF risk slightly less well than measured obesity.