PM 10 concentration forecasting in the metropolitan area of Oviedo (Northern Spain) using models based on SVM, MLP, VARMA and ARIMA: A case study.

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is one of the pollutants that may have a significant impact on human health. Data collected over seven years in a city of the north of Spain is analyzed using four different mathematical models: vector autoregressive moving-average (VARMA), autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA), multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks and support vector machines (SVMs) with regression. Measured monthly average pollutants and PM10 (particles with a diameter less than 10μm) concentration are used as input to forecast the monthly averaged concentration of PM10 from one to seven months ahead. Simulations showed that the SVM model performs better than the other models when forecasting one month ahead and also for the following seven months.