Pancreatic cancer incidence trends: evidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) population-based data.

Background: Annual pancreatic cancer incidence rates have been increasing. We examine pancreatic cancer incidence trends by demographics and histologic type.

Methods: Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registries were available to assess temporal trends and pancreatic cancer rates from 1974 to 2013.

Results: Pancreatic cancer incidence rates declined between the 1970s and 1990s but increased from 1994 to 2013 among White males. Among non-Hispanic White and Hispanic males, the annual percent change (APC) in incidence between 1992 and 2013 was 0.84% and 0.73%, respectively. Rates also rose among White non-Hispanic, Hispanic and Asian females (APC = 0.81%, 0.56% and 1.23%, respectively) and even more rapidly among females aged 25-34 years (APC > 2.5%). Rates among Black males and females remained unchanged, but higher compared with the other racial/ethnic groups. By histologic type, the increases were greatest for non-secretory endocrine cancers ( > 6%), followed by ductal adenocarcinomas (∼5%) and adenocarcinoma, NOS (∼1.4%)-the largest histologic subgroup of pancreatic cancer. Rates for mucinous adenocarcinomas and poorly specified pancreatic cancer decreased. Overall, incidence rates during 2000-13 were higher among males than females [MF incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.28]. The IRR was >1.00 at all ages ≥ 35, but rates among females were higher at younger ages (IRRs 15-24: 0.66, 25-34: 0.81). The MF IRRs for most of the histologic types were elevated among males apart from solid pseudopapillary adenocarcinoma and cystic carcinomas (IRR = 0.22, confidence interval: 0.14-0.34 and 0.52, 0.41-0.65, respectively).

Conclusion: Pancreatic cancer has been increasing overall, but patterns differ by demographic group and histologic type. Many of the trends parallel changing prevalence of lifestyle risk factors such as smoking, overweight and obesity, and diabetes in the USA, particularly for pancreatic adenocarcinoma, and improved diagnosis methods during the past 40 years.