Systems Thinking and Simulation Modeling to Inform Childhood Obesity Policy and Practice.

OBJECTIVES: In 2007, 31.7% of Georgia adolescents in grades 9-12 were overweight or obese. Understanding the impact of policies and interventions on obesity prevalence among young people can help determine statewide public health and policy strategies. This article describes a systems model, originally launched in 2008 and updated in 2014, that simulates the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034.

METHODS: In 2008, using information from peer-reviewed reports and quantitative estimates by experts in childhood obesity, physical activity, nutrition, and health economics and policy, a group of legislators, legislative staff members, and experts trained in systems thinking and system dynamics modeling constructed a model simulating the impact of policy interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in Georgia through 2034. Use of the 2008 model contributed to passage of a bill requiring annual fitness testing of schoolchildren and stricter enforcement of physical education requirements. We updated the model in 2014.

RESULTS: With no policy change, the updated model projects that the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents aged ≤18 in Georgia would hold at 18% from 2014 through 2034. Mandating daily school physical education (which would reduce prevalence to 12%) and integrating moderate to vigorous physical activity into elementary classrooms (which would reduce prevalence to 10%) would have the largest projected impact. Enacting all policies simultaneously would lower the prevalence of childhood obesity from 18% to 3%.

CONCLUSIONS: Systems thinking, especially with simulation models, facilitates understanding of complex health policy problems. Using a simulation model to educate legislators, educators, and health experts about the policies that have the greatest short- and long-term impact should encourage strategic investment in low-cost, high-return policies.