Risk prediction model for major complication after hepatectomy for malignant tumour - A validated scoring system from a university center.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a scoring system for major complication after hepatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Complications after hepatectomy significantly compromise survival outcomes, method to predict such risk is lacking. A reliable scoring system is therefore awaited.

METHODS: Consecutive adult patients receiving hepatectomy for primary or secondary liver malignancy from 1995 to 2014 were recruited. After randomization, patients were allocated to derivation and validation group respectively. A scoring system predicting occurrence of major complication was developed.

RESULTS: There were 2613 patients eligible for the study. The overall complication rate for the series was 10%. Impaired performance status (p = 0.014), presence of pre-existing medical illness (p = 0.008), elevated ALP (p = 0.005), urea (p < 0.001), and hypoalbuminemia (p = 0.008), and major hepatectomy (p < 0.001) were found to be independently associated major complications. A score was assigned to each of these factors according to their respective odd ratio. A total score of 0-17 was calculated for all patients. This score was shown to discriminate well with complication rate in both derivation and validation group (c-statistic: 0.71, p < 0.001 and 0.74, p < 0.001 respectively). The complication rate for low (score 0-5), moderate (score 6-10) and high (score 10 or above) risk group were respectively 5%, 16% and 28%. This risk stratification model was tested and confirmed in the validation group using Chi-square goodness-of-fit test (p = 0.864).

CONCLUSION: A validated risk stratification model provides an accurate and easy-to-use reference tool for patients and clinicians during the informed consent process.