Comparative Analysis of Supply Risk-Mitigation Strategies for Critical Byproduct Minerals: A Case Study of Tellurium.

Materials criticality assessment is a screening framework increasingly applied to identify materials of importance that face scarcity risks. Although these assessments highlight materials for the implicit purpose of informing future action, the aggregated nature of their findings make them difficult to use for guidance in developing nuanced mitigation strategy and policy response. As a first step in the selection of mitigation strategies, the present work proposes a modeling framework and accompanying set of metrics to directly compare strategies by measuring effectiveness of risk reduction as a function of the features of projected supply demand balance over time. The work focuses on byproduct materials, whose criticality is particularly important to understand because their supplies are inherently less responsive to market balancing forces, i.e., price feedbacks. Tellurium, a byproduct of copper refining, which is critical to solar photovoltaics, is chosen as a case study, and three commonly discussed byproduct-relevant strategies are selected: dematerialization of end-use product, byproduct yield improvement, and end-of-life recycling rate improvement. Results suggest that dematerialization will be nearly twice as effective at reducing supply risk as the next best option, yield improvement. Finally, due to its infrequent use at present and its dependence upon long product lifespans, recycling end-of-life products is expected to be the least effective option despite potentially offering other benefits (e.g., cost savings and environmental impact reduction).