Trajectories Over the First Year of Long-Term Care Nursing Home Residence.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the trajectories in the first year after individuals are admitted to long-term care nursing homes.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING: US long-term care facilities.

PARTICIPANTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries newly admitted to long-term care nursing homes from July 1, 2012, to December 31, 2013 (N=535,202).

MEASUREMENTS: Demographic characteristics were from Medicare data. Individual trajectories were conducted using the Minimum Data Set for determining long-term care stays and community discharge, and Medicare Provider and Analysis Reviews claims data for determining hospitalizations, skilled nursing facility stays, inpatient rehabilitation, long-term acute hospital and psychiatric hospital stays.

RESULTS: The median length of stay in a long-term care nursing home over the 1 year following admission was 127 [interquartile range (IQR): 24, 356] days. The median length of stay in any institution was 158 (IQR: 38, 365). Residents experienced a mean of 2.1  ± 2.8 (standard deviation) transitions over the first year. The community discharge rate was 36.5% over the 1-year follow-up, with 20.8% discharged within 30 days and 31.2% discharged within 100 days. The mortality rate over the first year of nursing home residence was 35.0%, with 16.3% deaths within 100 days. At 12 months post long-term care admission, 36.9% of the cohort were in long-term care, 23.4% were in community, 4.7% were in acute care hospitals or other institutions, and 35.0% had died.

CONCLUSION: After a high initial community discharge rate, the majority of patients newly admitted to long-term care experienced multiple transitions while remaining institutionalized until death or the end of 1-year follow-up.