Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Policy in Human Immunodeficiency Virus: Recommendations From a Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is expected to contribute a large noncommunicable disease burden among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected people. We quantify the impact of prevention interventions on annual CVD burden and costs among HIV-infected people in the Netherlands.

METHODS: We constructed an individual-based model of CVD in HIV-infected people using national ATHENA (AIDS Therapy Evaluation in The Netherlands) cohort data on 8791 patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The model follows patients as they age, develop CVD (by incorporating a CVD risk equation), and start cardiovascular medication. Four prevention interventions were evaluated: (1) increasing the rate of earlier HIV diagnosis and treatment; (2) avoiding use of cART with increased CVD risk; (3) smoking cessation; and (4) intensified monitoring and drug treatment of hypertension and dyslipidemia, quantifying annual number of averted CVDs and costs.

RESULTS: The model predicts that annual CVD incidence and costs will increase by 55% and 36% between 2015 and 2030. Traditional prevention interventions (ie, smoking cessation and intensified monitoring and treatment of hypertension and dyslipidemia) will avert the largest number of annual CVD cases (13.1% and 20.0%) compared with HIV-related interventions-that is, earlier HIV diagnosis and treatment and avoiding cART with increased CVD risk (0.8% and 3.7%, respectively)-as well as reduce cumulative CVD-related costs. Targeting high-risk patients could avert the majority of events and costs.

CONCLUSIONS: Traditional CVD prevention interventions can maximize cardiovascular health and defray future costs, particularly if targeting high-risk patients. Quantifying additional public health benefits, beyond CVD, is likely to provide further evidence for policy development.