Trends and predictions to 2020 in breast cancer mortality in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: We analyzed trends in mortality from breast cancer in women in 36 European countries and the European Union (EU) over the period 1970-2014, and predicted numbers of deaths and rates to 2020.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We derived breast cancer death certification data and population figures from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases. We obtained 2020 estimates using a joinpoint regression model.

RESULTS: Overall, EU breast cancer mortality rates (world standard) declined from 17.9/100,000 in 2002 to 15.2 in 2012. The predicted 2020 rate is 13.4/100,000. The falls were largest in young women (20-49 years, -22% between 2002 and 2012). Within the EU, declines were larger in the United Kingdom (UK) and other northern and western European countries than in most central and eastern Europe. The UK has the second lowest predicted breast cancer mortality rate in 2020 (after Spain), starting from the highest one in 1970. Breast cancer mortality is predicted to rise in Poland, where the predicted 2020 rate is 15.3/100,000. We estimated that about 32,500 breast cancer deaths will be avoided in 2020 in the EU as compared to the peak rate of 1989, and a total of 475,000 breast cancer deaths over the period 1990-2020.

CONCLUSION: The overall favourable breast cancer mortality trends are mainly due to a succession of improvements in the management and treatment of breast cancer, though early diagnosis and screening played a role, too. Improving breast cancer management in central and eastern Europe is a priority.